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Friday’s performance marked large rally

This just in via email from Oak Partners, Inc.   You can visit their web site at http://www.oakpartners.com/

For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.86%, the Dow added 1.61%, and the NASDAQ increased 2.34%.[2] MSCI EAFE stocks also increased, posting a 1.42% weekly gain.[3]
While the results may not seem especially dramatic, the path to get there certainly was. On Thursday, January 3, domestic stocks plunged, as factory data and a tech warning spooked investors.[4] Then, the next day, the S&P 500, Dow, and NASDAQ each gained at least 3.3%.[5] Friday’s performance marked one of the largest rallies since the beginning of this bull market.[6]

What drove the market rally?

Two key events contributed to the huge jumps on Friday: 1) the latest labor report and 2) comments from the Federal Reserve Chairman.[7]

1. December’s labor report exceeded projections.

Many people expected that the economy would add around 176,000 jobs last month. Instead, the latest data revealed that the increase was actually 312,000 new jobs in December – drastically beating expectations.[8] Not only did last month’s labor report show more jobs added than anticipated, but wage growth and labor market participation also increased.[9]

Why does this data matter?

Investors have been very concerned that economic growth is slowing. This data helped quell worries that a recession is ahead.[10]

2. The Fed shared new policy perspectives.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell told the American Economic Association that the Federal Reserve understands the market’s worries and hasn’t predetermined its future interest rate hikes.[11]

Why does this update matter?

Some of the uneasiness the markets have shown recently are a result of concerns that the Fed is tightening monetary policy too quickly. Powell’s comments indicate the Fed is sensitive to economic conditions, an update that many investors wanted to hear.[12]


[1] www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-04/all-the-days-are-big-days-for-stocks-as-bulls-bears-trade-blows?srnd=premium

[2] http://performance.morningstar.com/Performance/index-c/performance-return.action?t=SPX®ion=usa&culture=en-US

http://performance.morningstar.com/Performance/index-c/performance-return.action?t=%21DJI®ion=usa&culture=en-US

http://performance.morningstar.com/Performance/index-c/performance-return.action?t=@CCO

[3] www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search

[4] www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-03/asia-stocks-to-track-u-s-losses-on-growth-worries-markets-wrap?srnd=markets-vp

[5] https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/04/stock-market-investors-react-to-us-china-trade-talks.html

[6] www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-03/asia-stocks-to-track-u-s-losses-on-growth-worries-markets-wrap?srnd=markets-vp

[7] www.cnbc.com/2019/01/04/stock-market-investors-react-to-us-china-trade-talks.html

[8] www.cnbc.com/2019/01/04/stock-market-investors-react-to-us-china-trade-talks.html

[9] www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-03/asia-stocks-to-track-u-s-losses-on-growth-worries-markets-wrap?srnd=markets-vp

[10] www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-03/asia-stocks-to-track-u-s-losses-on-growth-worries-markets-wrap?srnd=markets-vp

[11] www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/wall-st-rebounds-on-robust-jobs-report-dovish-powell-remarks-idUSKCN1OY154

[12] www.cnbc.com/2019/01/04/stock-market-investors-react-to-us-china-trade-talks.html

[13] www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-03/asia-stocks-to-track-u-s-losses-on-growth-worries-markets-wrap?srnd=markets-vp

[14] www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/wall-st-rebounds-on-robust-jobs-report-dovish-powell-remarks-idUSKCN1OY154


The International Bank of Google (or FaceBook)

I understand Marcus Wohlsen’s (of wired.com) point, http://www.wired.com/business/2013/08/why-do-we-need-banks/ and I agree that change to automated, consumer-driven transactions and on-demand financial services is what the market demands. However I disagree with his conclusion that local financial stores will all vanish.

The financial firm at which I do most of my business is not located at a special, isolated, banking building, mind you, but at the Three Rivers Federal Credit Union branch that is located in my local grocery store. This branch allows me to give instructions to personnel who can perform the task that I want done, usually immediately, whether it be initiating some new process (such as opening another account for some specific purpose),  reporting and stopping an identity thief, a correction of an errant automated transaction on one of my accounts, or a deposit of receipts in old-fashioned checks and cash.

The downside to on-line automation is exception handling, which requires human interaction. This kind of human interaction needs to be attentive and helpful also, not some uncaring foreigner  on a telephone in some other country who doesn’t even speak clear English, without the will or authority to actually resolve the issue.

I feel that Marcus is correct about for-profit banks because I feel that the cost of supporting totally free-standing separate buildings just for a for-profit bank are likely ended, but partnership arrangements to make banking personnel available in a high traffic location, such as at a grocery store, are far less expensive. The grocery store also benefits from the presence of the TRFCU branch that I patronize because after I drop off my deposit, at a teller during business hours or in the night deposit box after hours, I then pick up whatever supplies my company and my not-for-profit corporation require, making those purchases at that grocery store. This suits me because it is more convenient to me than shopping where the milk or sugar are slightly cheaper because I was already there to do my banking.

Marcus Wohlsen’s  concept is solid: that changes in the financial industry will be driven by consumer preference and convenience. What I feel he has missed is that there will always be a need for a human being to efficiently fix mistakes in the system, and that is why I feel that local branches will never go away, although they will become much more financially efficient.