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Economic Review from Oak Partners

Illustration of a rightward shift in the demand curve

Illustration of a rightward shift in the demand curve. Artist: SilverStar at English Wikipedia.

This just in via email from Oak Partners, Inc.


Although new data continued to show strength in the U.S. economy, markets stumbled across the globe last week. While U.S. and international stocks followed similar paths last week, data is beginning to show that our economic outlooks may be very different for the moment.

U.S. Strength in a Growing International Divide

The latest labor report helped underscore some of the differences between the U.S. economy and the rest of the world. While the data missed the mark for new jobs added, September marked the 96th-straight month of job growth – and the lowest unemployment level since 1969. The report pushed interest rates higher, which contributed to last week’s equity losses.

However, when describing our economy, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said it is experiencing “a particularly bright moment.”

Global Growth Adjustments

At the same time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicated that it would decrease its global economic growth predictions. The IMF hasn’t downgraded its forecasts since 2016. Currently, more risks are beginning to emerge – from trade tension to political challenges in Europe. In particular, the rise in oil prices, the U.S dollar, and interest rates are hurting emerging economies.

HSBC mirrored this divide, cutting its global economic outlook while upgrading U.S. numbers.


April Indiana Employment Report

From Indiana in email today:

INDIANAPOLIS (May 18, 2018) – Indiana’s unemployment rate stands at 3.2 percent for April and remains lower than the national rate of 3.9 percent. With the exception of one month when it was equal (October 2014), Indiana’s unemployment rate now has been below the U.S. rate for more than four years. The monthly unemployment rate is a U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) indicator that reflects the number of unemployed people seeking employment within the prior four weeks as a percentage of the labor force.

Indiana’s labor force had a net increase of 11,655 over the previous month. This was a result of a 737 increase in unemployed residents and an increase of 10,918 employed residents. Indiana’s total labor force, which includes both Hoosiers employed and those seeking employment, stands at 3.33 million, and the state’s 64.0 percent labor force participation rate remains above the national rate of 62.8 percent.

In addition, Indiana’s initial unemployment insurance claims continue to be at historical lows.

Learn more about how unemployment rates are calculated here: http://www.hoosierdata.in.gov/infographics/employment-status.asp.


Bottom Line on US Employment, Nov. 2014

See below for US government data as released by the US government, accessed November 2014.
http://census.gov
http://bls.gov

The Officially Reported “National Unemployment Rate” for November 2014 is 5.8%.

Total number of persons employed as of November 2014: ~141 million. If working age persons are those at least 18 years of age and less than 65 years of age, then there are about (76.3% – 13.4% = 62.9%, times 316 million) 199 million people of working age in the US. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics data, 141 million are working. Thus Readmore..